Methodology
Overview
HockeyStatMan evaluates NHL teams using a combination of recent form analytics, strength-of-schedule adjustments, pace-of-play indicators, and special teams efficiency. Metrics update automatically throughout the season to reflect team trends and performance changes.
Last 5 Games Metric (L5GM)
The Last 5 Games Metric (L5GM) measures how a team has performed in its most recent five contests, capturing momentum and short-term form without over-weighting a single anomalous result.
Components
- Goal Differential Trend: Net goals over the last five games.
- Shot Attempts (CF/CA): Corsi For/Against to track possession and pressure.
- High-Danger Chances: Quality scoring opportunities for and against.
- Special Teams Efficiency: Power play and penalty kill trends.
- Goaltending Performance vs. Expected: Adjusts for actual vs. expected goals allowed.
Rationale
Five games provide a balance: enough to detect trends while limiting the influence of extreme anomalies. This period captures injuries, line changes, and tactical adjustments.
Scoring and Rankings
The L5GM score contributes to daily team rankings, matchup insights, heat maps, and Top Picks recommendations. Scores are normalized to allow fair comparison across all teams.
Limitations
No model perfectly predicts hockey outcomes. Factors such as empty-net goals, sudden injuries, or random bounces can impact results. L5GM is a trend indicator, not a guarantee.
Conclusion
By using L5GM along with additional metrics, HockeyStatMan provides a data-backed perspective to help hockey fans understand recent team performance and make informed observations about upcoming matchups.